October 26, 2008
Joe the Plumber May Be An Icon, But His Type Is Endangered
by Craig Charney
The Joe the Plumber may be at the heart of John McCain’s campaign in the closing days, but he represents a rapidly shrinking demographic — one whose power to swing a presidential election has declined dramatically in recent years.
By now, we all know the story. Joe Wurzelbacher is the Ohio plumber who, in an encounter with Barack Obama, learned about the candidate’s plans to “spread the wealth around.” When McCain mentioned him in the final debate, the man became an icon — and the center of an anguished debate about whether the black candidate and his redistributionist tax policies could win over the vital support of white working men.
But there’s a problem with this whole discussion. The political importance of the white working class has fallen drastically as its share of the electorate has shrunk. Moreover, for Democrats, the blue-collar whites who matter now aren’t Joe and the boys. It’s working-class white women who have been truly in play — and are likely to wind up handing Obama the keys to the White House.
Indeed, those harping on Democrats’ problems with white working men are clinging to a mythical America that no longer exists as politicians and the media imagine. Obama’s team, in contrast, appears to see how the country is changing, and is crafting a coalition that embodies the shift.
In 1960, noncollege-educated whites were the nation’s dominant electoral force — they made up 75% of voters. In 1980 they still made up 60% of the electorate, according to the National Election Studies.
Since then, we’ve seen a steady shift. Industries employing blue-collar workers have declined. Unions have weakened. Better-educated Baby Boomers, Gen Xers and Millennials now dominate the service- and tech-oriented New Economy, and the electorate.
Today, noncollege whites are 40% of likely voters, a recent Democracy Corps poll found. They’re outnumbered by voters with college degrees (45%). Noncollege minorities make up the remaining 15%. So Obama’s two strongest groups, college-educated voters and minorities, form a majority of the electorate now.
But there’s worse news for Joe — and John and Sarah. The share of noncollege white males among the voters has fallen to just 19%. That makes blue-collar white men just one voting bloc among many. They’re slightly more numerous than college-educated women, blacks and Hispanics, fewer than noncollege women or voters under 35, and less central to the Democratic coalition than any of those groups.
Working-class white men and women have trended in opposite directions. While cultural, economic and racial issues have pushed noncollege men toward the Republicans in recent years, women’s entry into the workforce and growing personal independence have left them more open to Democrats.
The single biggest recent movement to Obama has come from working-class white women — ex-supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton and moderates and independents tempted when Sarah Palin was named to the GOP ticket. As the economy worsened, Palin imploded and Obama scored in the debates, his vote among this bloc soared some 17 points between late September and mid October. (His vote among noncollege white men fell three points over this time.)
Those blue-collar women were Obama’s must-win group. In May, when he ran even with McCain, polls put Obama 14 points behind the Democratic vote for Congress among those women, his worst performance in any Democratic base group. Now, this disadvantage has vanished.
Of course, Obama cannot afford to lose every last blue-collar white man and still take the White House; neither can he totally tank among white evangelical or rural voters.
But Obama’s Democratic Party isn’t your father’s Democratic Party — nor does it need to be Joe the Plumber’s. It’s the party of the America we’re becoming.
Craig Charney is president of Charney Research, a New York polling firm. He was Senior Analyst on President Clinton’s 1996 re-election polling team.
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