August 29, 2008
Signs of an Obama Bounce...But How Big?
The latest available polls suggest that by Thursday, Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, had already racked up a significant, if moderately-sized, “bounce” during the Democratic National Convention.
On the Gallup daily tracking poll, Obama has gone from running 2 points behind Republican nominee-to-be John McCain in pre-convention polling to 8 points ahead in a poll released today, up by 49% to McCain’s 41%. This is a net gain, or bounce, of 10 points.
The Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracker shows Obama surging from 1 point behind pre-convention to four points ahead in today’s poll, 49% to 45%. This is a 5-point bounce.
Significantly, Obama has regained ground among groups where he was doing badly in the past month. Gallup found a 10-point rise to 77% in Obama’s vote share among moderate and conservative Democrats, a group favorable to his former rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton where he had been under-performing.
Rasmussen reported that among Independents, Obama moved from 10 points behind McCain to just three points down, a net gain of 7 points. These data suggest that the speeches by Sen. Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, helped undo the damage done by the attacks on Obama they began and McCain had reprised, at least for the moment.
These numbers probably understate Obama’s bounce. They average polls from the last three days, so the earlier, weaker numbers of Tuesday and Wednesday are included, and last night’s polling was largely concluded before Obama’s impressive acceptance speech. Focus groups by Stan Greenberg last night showed that the speech had a powerful effect on swing voters who watched. So the trackers released tomorrow will probably show a further increase in Obama’s gain.
What remains to be seen is whether McCain’s announcement of his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, will interrupt Obama’s upward momentum, or how much of his net gain will remain after next week’s Republican National Convention.
Still, even on today’s figures, Obama’s bump is likely to be greater than John Kerry’s in 2004 (+5 points) and comparable to Al Gore’s in 2000 (+ 10). For now, he has reversed the trend of the race and recovered the momentum he lost in the wake of McCain’s aggressive attacks after his overseas trip in July.
Craig Charney is president of Charney Research, a New York polling firm.
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